Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 2.074898 2.424105 2.811678 3.273409 3.808222 4.407927 5.131194
2025-12-28 1.601914 2.088320 2.686803 3.475851 4.487377 5.739216 7.404911
2026-01-04 1.249058 1.782622 2.497246 3.520916 4.946103 6.856250 9.607025
2026-01-11 1.015495 1.564921 2.355464 3.569773 5.381276 7.975860 11.965597
2026-01-18 0.839533 1.383818 2.217586 3.578574 5.734202 9.003784 14.323411
2026-01-25 0.701408 1.228337 2.082198 3.553919 6.012733 9.936866 16.648599
2026-02-01 0.561837 1.041167 1.859652 3.343513 5.948139 10.304700 18.106548
2026-02-08 0.467699 0.913200 1.711525 3.227632 6.012036 10.873204 19.950982
2026-02-15 0.404564 0.829216 1.624987 3.202557 6.223255 11.708837 22.353767
2026-02-22 0.370508 0.794202 1.621557 3.327750 6.722003 13.111864 25.953595
2026-03-01 0.324759 0.727250 1.545374 3.298500 6.917778 13.972616 28.638372
2026-03-08 0.283329 0.661795 1.461364 3.239013 7.041513 14.704194 31.155707
2026-03-15 0.250194 0.610261 1.401664 3.228716 7.281029 15.728372 34.468800
2026-03-22 0.241275 0.612727 1.459745 3.484756 8.129226 18.118462 40.959337
2026-03-29 0.219316 0.580200 1.434314 3.549639 8.567828 19.705364 45.955654
2026-04-05 0.199513 0.549180 1.407131 3.605739 8.994211 21.320922 51.233075
2026-04-12 0.179657 0.514152 1.364354 3.616981 9.315963 22.742349 56.258174
2026-04-19 0.160559 0.477385 1.310998 3.592871 9.547468 23.983796 61.025841
2026-04-26 0.135529 0.419118 1.192244 3.380487 9.274621 23.988516 62.816552
2026-05-03 0.117975 0.378792 1.114321 3.263450 9.229104 24.540192 66.030874
2026-05-10 0.106117 0.353098 1.072332 3.238135 9.423525 25.719184 70.995764
2026-05-17 0.100722 0.346381 1.083272 3.364684 10.052851 28.101015 79.408947
2026-05-24 0.090912 0.323515 1.042957 3.335123 10.238446 29.333083 84.909668